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Tokyo Verdy 1969 vs Nagoya Grampus
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:59 UTC · 9 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
TVE 35%Draw 28%NAG 37%
Expected goals · TVE 1.3 · NAG 1.3 · 2.6 total
Expected goals are close (1.3 vs 1.3) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for TVE's win chance, the blue ones for NAG's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| TVE goals | NAG 0 | NAG 1 | NAG 2 | NAG 3 | NAG 4 | NAG 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TVE 0 | 8% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| TVE 1 | 9% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| TVE 2 | 6% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| TVE 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| TVE 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| TVE 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
TVE 35.1% · Draw 27.9% · NAG 37.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
This looks level with over 2.5 goals at 48% — open but no clear winner.
THE ANGLE
The draw at 28% is the single most likely outcome — scoreline distribution keeps returning to 1-1.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
TVE
4-4-2NAG
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS54%
TVE CLEAN SHEET27%
NAG CLEAN SHEET28%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
TVE
NAG
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
TVE
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1NAG
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
TVE
0.89
LEAGUE1.40
NAG
1.07
NAG scores +0.18 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
TVE
1.57
LEAGUE1.40
NAG
1.64
TVE concedes 0.07 fewer per 90