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Kyoto Sanga vs Cerezo Osaka
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:33 UTC · 15 NovKYO 54%Draw 23%CER 23%
Expected goals · KYO 2.0 · CER 1.2 · 3.2 total
KYO's attack (1.00x, about the league average) against CER's defence (1.27x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.8.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for KYO's win chance, the blue ones for CER's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| KYO goals | CER 0 | CER 1 | CER 2 | CER 3 | CER 4 | CER 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KYO 0 | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| KYO 1 | 7% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| KYO 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| KYO 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| KYO 4 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| KYO 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
KYO 53.9% · Draw 22.9% · CER 23.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Kyoto Sanga have the edge at 54% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 35% of outcomes — 1-1 at 10% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
KYO
4-2-3-1CER
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.584%
OVER 2.563%
OVER 3.540%
BTTS62%
KYO CLEAN SHEET29%
CER CLEAN SHEET14%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
KYO
CER
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
KYO
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
2
games without concedingLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1CER
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
KYO
1.37
LEAGUE1.40
CER
1.17
KYO scores +0.20 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
KYO
1.60
LEAGUE1.40
CER
1.83
KYO concedes 0.23 fewer per 90
