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Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:19 UTC · 15 NovNAG 50%Draw 26%AVF 23%
Expected goals · NAG 1.6 · AVF 1.0 · 2.6 total
NAG's attack (0.83x, below the league average) against AVF's defence (1.24x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for NAG's win chance, the blue ones for AVF's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| NAG goals | AVF 0 | AVF 1 | AVF 2 | AVF 3 | AVF 4 | AVF 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAG 0 | 8% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| NAG 1 | 11% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| NAG 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| NAG 3 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| NAG 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| NAG 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
NAG 50.4% · Draw 26.3% · AVF 23.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Nagoya Grampus edge this at 50% — expected goals of 1.6 to 1.0 give them the lean.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 38% of outcomes — 1-1 at 13% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
NAG
3-4-2-1AVF
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.549%
OVER 3.527%
BTTS52%
NAG CLEAN SHEET36%
AVF CLEAN SHEET20%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
NAG
AVF
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
NAG
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2AVF
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
1
points · W0 D1 L4VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
NAG
1.07
LEAGUE1.40
AVF
0.98
NAG scores +0.09 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
NAG
1.64
LEAGUE1.40
AVF
1.82
NAG concedes 0.18 fewer per 90
