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Shimizu S-Pulse vs Urawa Red Diamonds
28 Nov · 05:00 UTC
IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 05:31 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
SHI 31%Draw 27%URA 42%
Expected goals · SHI 1.3 · URA 1.5 · 2.8 total
URA's attack (1.05x the league average) against SHI's defence (1.15x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for SHI's win chance, the blue ones for URA's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| SHI goals | URA 0 | URA 1 | URA 2 | URA 3 | URA 4 | URA 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHI 0 | 7% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| SHI 1 | 7% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| SHI 2 | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| SHI 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SHI 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| SHI 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
SHI 31.4% · Draw 26.7% · URA 41.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Urawa Red Diamonds have the edge at 42% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 57% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 13% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
SHI
4-3-3URA
4-3-3Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.577%
OVER 2.552%
OVER 3.530%
BTTS57%
SHI CLEAN SHEET22%
URA CLEAN SHEET28%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
SHI
URA
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
SHI
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 last outGOAL DROUGHT
4
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
1
points · W0 D1 L4URA
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
SHI
0.71
LEAGUE1.40
URA
1.62
URA scores +0.91 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
SHI
1.72
LEAGUE1.40
URA
2.03
SHI concedes 0.31 fewer per 90