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Kawasaki Frontale vs Gamba Osaka
29 Nov · 06:00 UTC
Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:15 UTC · 15 NovKAW 56%Draw 22%GAM 22%
Expected goals · KAW 2.1 · GAM 1.3 · 3.4 total
KAW's attack (1.29x the league average) against GAM's defence (1.06x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.8.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for KAW's win chance, the blue ones for GAM's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| KAW goals | GAM 0 | GAM 1 | GAM 2 | GAM 3 | GAM 4 | GAM 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAW 0 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| KAW 1 | 6% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| KAW 2 | 7% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| KAW 3 | 5% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| KAW 4 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| KAW 5 | 1% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
KAW 56.1% · Draw 21.8% · GAM 22.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Kawasaki Frontale should control this — 56% win probability and 2.0 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Home/away split tells the story: Kawasaki Frontale scoring 2.0/game at home, Gamba Osaka scoring 1.1/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
KAW
4-2-3-1GAM
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.586%
OVER 2.566%
OVER 3.544%
BTTS64%
KAW CLEAN SHEET28%
GAM CLEAN SHEET12%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
KAW
GAM
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
KAW
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2GAM
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 2–3 last outSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
6
points · W1 D3 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
KAW
2.00
LEAGUE1.40
GAM
1.14
KAW scores +0.86 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
KAW
1.75
LEAGUE1.40
GAM
1.70
GAM concedes 0.05 fewer per 90
