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Mito Hollyhock vs V-Varen Nagasaki
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:26 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
MHO 36%Draw 29%VVN 34%
Expected goals · MHO 1.2 · VVN 1.2 · 2.4 total
Expected goals are close (1.2 vs 1.2) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MHO's win chance, the blue ones for VVN's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MHO goals | VVN 0 | VVN 1 | VVN 2 | VVN 3 | VVN 4 | VVN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MHO 0 | 10% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MHO 1 | 10% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| MHO 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MHO 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MHO 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| MHO 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MHO 36.3% · Draw 29.3% · VVN 34.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Neither team separates themselves here — 36% for the slight favourite, 29% for the draw.
THE ANGLE
The draw at 29% is the single most likely outcome — scoreline distribution keeps returning to 1-1.
THE CAVEAT
Mito Hollyhock are on a 5-match losing streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A SKID · MHO5 losses in a row
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MHO
4-4-2VVN
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.570%
OVER 2.543%
OVER 3.522%
BTTS50%
MHO CLEAN SHEET31%
VVN CLEAN SHEET30%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MHO
VVN
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MHO
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 last outGOAL DROUGHT
5
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
0
points · W0 D0 L5VVN
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
MHO
0.81
LEAGUE1.40
VVN
1.21
VVN scores +0.40 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MHO
1.91
LEAGUE1.40
VVN
1.53
VVN concedes 0.38 fewer per 90