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V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kawasaki Frontale
25 Nov · 10:00 UTC
PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 12:51 UTC · 13 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
VVN 42%Draw 24%KAW 34%
Expected goals · VVN 1.7 · KAW 1.5 · 3.2 total
VVN's attack (0.99x, below the league average) against KAW's defence (1.11x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for VVN's win chance, the blue ones for KAW's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| VVN goals | KAW 0 | KAW 1 | KAW 2 | KAW 3 | KAW 4 | KAW 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVN 0 | 5% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| VVN 1 | 6% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| VVN 2 | 6% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| VVN 3 | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| VVN 4 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| VVN 5 | <1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
VVN 41.8% · Draw 24.4% · KAW 33.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
V-Varen Nagasaki have the edge at 42% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 65% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 11% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
VVN
3-4-2-1KAW
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.584%
OVER 2.563%
OVER 3.541%
BTTS65%
VVN CLEAN SHEET22%
KAW CLEAN SHEET18%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
VVN
KAW
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
VVN
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3KAW
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
VVN
1.21
LEAGUE1.40
KAW
2.00
KAW scores +0.79 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
VVN
1.53
LEAGUE1.40
KAW
1.75
VVN concedes 0.22 fewer per 90