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Expected goals · VIS 2.2 · MHO 0.8 · 3.0 total
VIS's attack (1.11x the league average) against MHO's defence (1.24x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.4.
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for VIS's win chance, the blue ones for MHO's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| VIS goals | MHO 0 | MHO 1 | MHO 2 | MHO 3 | MHO 4 | MHO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIS 0 | 6% | 3% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| VIS 1 | 11% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| VIS 2 | 12% | 10% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| VIS 3 | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| VIS 4 | 5% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| VIS 5 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
VIS 68.9% · Draw 19.6% · MHO 11.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Vissel Kobe at 69% — Mito Hollyhock concede 1.9 per game, and the model sees that.
Home/away split tells the story: Vissel Kobe scoring 1.7/game at home, Mito Hollyhock scoring 0.8/game on the road.
Mito Hollyhock are on a 5-match losing streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
VIS
4-3-3Predicted line-up
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
how each side performs at their ground
VIS scores +0.85 more per 90
VIS concedes 0.88 fewer per 90
Photo: yuk, CC BY-SA 3.0