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Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 04:58 UTC · 8 NovCER 14%Draw 21%TOK 64%
Expected goals · CER 0.9 · TOK 2.1 · 3.0 total
TOK's attack (1.61x the league average) against CER's defence (1.04x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for CER's win chance, the blue ones for TOK's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| CER goals | TOK 0 | TOK 1 | TOK 2 | TOK 3 | TOK 4 | TOK 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CER 0 | 6% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 2% |
| CER 1 | 4% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 1% |
| CER 2 | 2% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| CER 3 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CER 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| CER 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
CER 14.5% · Draw 21.2% · TOK 64.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.9%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
FC Tokyo should control this — 64% win probability and 2.4 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Cerezo Osaka concede 1.8 per game on the model's weighted record, and FC Tokyo's most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 11%.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
CER
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.580%
OVER 2.557%
OVER 3.534%
BTTS52%
CER CLEAN SHEET13%
TOK CLEAN SHEET41%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
CER
TOK
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
CER
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2TOK
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
5
games without concedingLAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
CER
1.17
LEAGUE1.40
TOK
2.40
TOK scores +1.23 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
CER
1.83
LEAGUE1.40
TOK
0.49
TOK concedes 1.34 fewer per 90