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Machida Zelvia vs V-Varen Nagasaki
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 21:22 UTC · 8 NovZEL 64%Draw 22%VVN 14%
Expected goals · ZEL 2.0 · VVN 0.8 · 2.8 total
ZEL's attack (1.08x the league average) against VVN's defence (1.06x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for ZEL's win chance, the blue ones for VVN's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| ZEL goals | VVN 0 | VVN 1 | VVN 2 | VVN 3 | VVN 4 | VVN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZEL 0 | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ZEL 1 | 11% | 10% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ZEL 2 | 12% | 10% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ZEL 3 | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ZEL 4 | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ZEL 5 | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
ZEL 64.0% · Draw 21.8% · VVN 14.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
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Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Machida Zelvia at 64% — V-Varen Nagasaki concede 1.5 per game, and the model sees that.
THE ANGLE
Home/away split tells the story: Machida Zelvia scoring 2.1/game at home, V-Varen Nagasaki scoring 1.2/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
ZEL
3-4-2-1VVN
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.578%
OVER 2.554%
OVER 3.532%
BTTS50%
ZEL CLEAN SHEET43%
VVN CLEAN SHEET14%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
ZEL
VVN
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
ZEL
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
3
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
5
games without concedingLAST 5
9
points · W2 D3 L0VVN
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
ZEL
2.08
LEAGUE1.40
VVN
1.21
ZEL scores +0.87 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
ZEL
0.67
LEAGUE1.40
VVN
1.53
ZEL concedes 0.86 fewer per 90
