Photo: Tokumeigakarinoaoshima, CC BY-SA 4.0| Minute | Side | Scorer | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11' | away | Rikito Inoue | 0-1 |
| 55' | home | Issam Jebali | 1-1 |
| 64' | away | Pablo Sabbag | 1-2 |
| 74' | away | Hayato Okuda | 1-3 |
| 81' | home | Eli Adams | 2-3 |
Win probability from OneTouch's in-running model (CC-LIVE-1.2+prior): score and clock only, from our pre-match call. Not xG.
Forecast Verdict
Top pick missedWe said
Model at kick-off: GAM 52% · Draw 23% · CER 25%
Actual
OneTouch Forecast · dc-v2.0
Cerezo Osaka won; our pre-match call put the chance of that at 22%. Gamba Osaka had more shots (21–17) but fewer on target (5–8).
Pre-match call frozen 8 Nov 2026 · model dc-v2.0
Tactical shift
Rikito Inoue
11'
0–1
Jackson Irvine
Booked
35'
Shota Fukuoka
Booked
38'
Hayato Okuda
Booked
39'
Eli Adams
On for Kohshiro Sumi
45'
Eli Adams
Booked
48'
Issam Jebali
55'
1–1
Pablo Sabbag
On for Satoki Uejo
59'
Pablo Sabbag
64'
1–2
Hayato Okuda
74'
1–3
Tsuyoshi Ogashiwa
On for Tokuma Suzuki
75'
Pablo Sabbag
Booked
79'
Eli Adams
81'
2–3
Shogo Sasaki
On for Shota Fukuoka
82'
Yota Komi
On for Yumeki Yokoyama
82'
Lucas Fernandes
Booked
86'
Ryotaro Meshino
On for Issam Jebali
87'
Kosei Okazawa
On for Lucas Fernandes
90'
Ratings are out of 10. marks an OneTouch estimate, not a confirmed grade. Tap a player for details.
Match DNA
Chaos Match
High-event, low-control. Structure broke down repeatedly — pure entertainment.
38 shots
xG for this match is modelled rather than measured, so per-shot and total xG figures are withheld. Positions and outcomes are as recorded.
accuracy · 24%
kill rate · 10%
accuracy · 47%
kill rate · 18%
Cerezo Osaka turned 18% of shots into goals to Gamba Osaka's 10%.
Shots on Target
Attack
Head to Head
League Standing
Japanese J.LeagueKey context
Venue
Suita City Football Stadium
Kick-off
8 Nov · 06:00 UTC
Referee
Atsushi Uemura
Japan · 2.9 yellows/match
Arena 3D
Pitch-level coverage: the ball follows the real on-pitch action.
