Photo: Matthew Jackson, CC BY-SA 3.0Forecast Verdict
Top pick correctWe said
Actual
OneTouch Forecast · dc-v2.0+cup
Bournemouth won; our pre-match call put the chance of that at 41%. Bournemouth had more shots (19–17) and more on target (7–5).
Pre-match call frozen 28 Oct 2026 · model dc-v2.0+cup
Tactical shift
Amine Adli
Assist · Julio Soler
7'
1–0
Emiliano Buendía
Booked
12'
Juanlu Sanchez
Booked
16'
Ben Gannon-Doak
Booked
25'
Brian Madjo
Booked
33'
Justin Kluivert
On for Marcus Tavernier
45'
Lewis Cook
Assist · Ben Gannon-Doak
51'
2–0
João Gomes
Booked
54'
Alejandro Garnacho
On for George Hemmings
58'
David Brooks
On for Ben Gannon-Doak
63'
Lewis Cook
Booked
67'
Álvaro Rodríguez
Assist · Tyler Adams
69'
3–0
Ross Barkley
On for Emiliano Buendía
70'
Tammy Abraham
On for Brian Madjo
75'
Junior Kroupi
On for Álvaro Rodríguez
80'
Ratings are out of 10. marks an OneTouch estimate, not a confirmed grade. Tap a player for details.
Match DNA
Transition Warfare
The match swung on turnovers. Moments of transition were the only moments that mattered.
36 shots
xG for this match is modelled rather than measured, so per-shot and total xG figures are withheld. Positions and outcomes are as recorded.
accuracy · 37%
kill rate · 16%
accuracy · 29%
kill rate · 0%
Bournemouth turned 16% of shots into goals to Aston Villa's 0%.
Shots on Target
Attack
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings3
Home
2.8 goals / game
4
Away
3
Draw
Key context
Venue
Vitality Stadium
Kick-off
28 Oct · 19:45 UTC
Referee
Tony Harrington
England · 3.7 yellows/match
Arena 3D
Pitch-level coverage: the ball follows the real on-pitch action.
Desk Stories
