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Wigan Athletic vs Plymouth Argyle
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 14:18 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
WGA 31%Draw 27%PLY 42%
Expected goals · WGA 1.2 · PLY 1.5 · 2.7 total
PLY's attack (1.15x the league average) against WGA's defence (1.06x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for WGA's win chance, the blue ones for PLY's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| WGA goals | PLY 0 | PLY 1 | PLY 2 | PLY 3 | PLY 4 | PLY 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WGA 0 | 8% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| WGA 1 | 8% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| WGA 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| WGA 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| WGA 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| WGA 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
WGA 30.8% · Draw 27.2% · PLY 42.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.5%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Plymouth Argyle have the edge at 42% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Plymouth Argyle are favoured but the draw at 27% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
WGA
5-3-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Wigan Athletic
No absences reported.
Plymouth Argyle
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.575%
OVER 2.550%
OVER 3.528%
BTTS55%
WGA CLEAN SHEET23%
PLY CLEAN SHEET30%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
WGA
PLY
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
WGA
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2PLY
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–3 to Sheffield Wednesday last outGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.36SCORED · PER 90
WGA
0.89
LEAGUE1.36
PLY
1.42
PLY scores +0.53 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
WGA
1.39
LEAGUE1.36
PLY
1.40
Defences level on season average
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
WGA
19th
Hovering above relegation on 14 points.
PLY
6th
In the promotion play-off places on 23 points.
PLY sit 13 places higher in the table