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Leicester City vs Mansfield Town
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 22:52 UTC · 14 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
LEI 41%Draw 25%MNF 33%
Expected goals · LEI 1.6 · MNF 1.4 · 3.0 total
LEI's attack (1.14x the league average) against MNF's defence (0.94x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for LEI's win chance, the blue ones for MNF's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| LEI goals | MNF 0 | MNF 1 | MNF 2 | MNF 3 | MNF 4 | MNF 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEI 0 | 5% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| LEI 1 | 7% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| LEI 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| LEI 3 | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| LEI 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LEI 5 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
LEI 41.4% · Draw 25.3% · MNF 33.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.0%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Leicester City have the edge at 41% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Leicester City's home advantage is the separator — they score 1.6/game there, Mansfield Town concede 1.3/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
LEI
3-4-2-1Luke Thomas · Warren O'Hora · Harry Souttar
Jayden Joseph · Sammy Braybrooke · Louis Page · John Lundstram · William Alves · Harry Howell
Bench · 12
Doyle, Okoli, Cordova-Reid, Cullen, Kangasniemi, Ravizzoli +6
MNF
3-1-4-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Leicester City
No absences reported.
Mansfield Town
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.581%
OVER 2.559%
OVER 3.536%
BTTS62%
LEI CLEAN SHEET24%
MNF CLEAN SHEET20%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
LEI
MNF
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
LEI
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1MNF
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.36SCORED · PER 90
LEI
1.65
LEAGUE1.36
MNF
1.52
LEI scores +0.13 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
LEI
1.37
LEAGUE1.36
MNF
1.29
MNF concedes 0.08 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
LEI
11th
Mid-table on 19 points.
MNF
12th
Mid-table on 19 points.
LEI sit 1 place higher in the table
