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AFC Wimbledon vs Barnsley
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 14:02 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
WIM 39%Draw 31%BAR 30%
Expected goals · WIM 1.2 · BAR 1.0 · 2.2 total
WIM's attack (0.73x, below the league average) against BAR's defence (1.05x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for WIM's win chance, the blue ones for BAR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| WIM goals | BAR 0 | BAR 1 | BAR 2 | BAR 3 | BAR 4 | BAR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIM 0 | 13% | 11% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| WIM 1 | 13% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| WIM 2 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| WIM 3 | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| WIM 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| WIM 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
WIM 39.2% · Draw 31.0% · BAR 29.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
The draw at 31% is the most likely single outcome — neither side is above 39%.
THE ANGLE
Over 2.5 probability at 36% suggests goals but no clear winner — this looks like a 1-1 kind of night.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
WIM
5-4-1BAR
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
AFC Wimbledon
No absences reported.
Barnsley
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.564%
OVER 2.536%
OVER 3.517%
BTTS44%
WIM CLEAN SHEET38%
BAR CLEAN SHEET31%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
WIM
BAR
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
WIM
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3BAR
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to Wigan last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
1
points · W0 D1 L4VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.36SCORED · PER 90
WIM
0.99
LEAGUE1.36
BAR
1.18
BAR scores +0.19 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
WIM
1.42
LEAGUE1.36
BAR
1.66
WIM concedes 0.24 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
WIM
17th
Mid-table on 16 points.
BAR
23rd
In the relegation zone on 9 points.
WIM sit 6 places higher in the table
