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Notts County vs Stevenage
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 16:32 UTC · 8 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
NCO 41%Draw 30%STE 29%
Expected goals · NCO 1.3 · STE 1.0 · 2.3 total
NCO's attack (0.96x, below the league average) against STE's defence (0.88x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for NCO's win chance, the blue ones for STE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| NCO goals | STE 0 | STE 1 | STE 2 | STE 3 | STE 4 | STE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCO 0 | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| NCO 1 | 12% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| NCO 2 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| NCO 3 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| NCO 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| NCO 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
NCO 41.2% · Draw 29.6% · STE 29.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Notts County are favoured at 41% but the draw at 30% is too high to ignore.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 47% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 14% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
NCO
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.568%
OVER 2.541%
OVER 3.520%
BTTS47%
NCO CLEAN SHEET36%
STE CLEAN SHEET28%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
NCO
STE
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
NCO
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2STE
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.36SCORED · PER 90
NCO
1.24
LEAGUE1.36
STE
1.45
STE scores +0.21 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
NCO
1.16
LEAGUE1.36
STE
1.11
Defences level on season average
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
NCO
18th
Hovering above relegation on 14 points.
STE
16th
Mid-table on 16 points.
STE sit 2 places higher in the table
