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Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 07:27 UTC · 13 NovLEY 56%Draw 24%WIM 20%
Expected goals · LEY 1.8 · WIM 1.0 · 2.8 total
LEY's attack (1.02x the league average) against WIM's defence (1.14x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.8.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for LEY's win chance, the blue ones for WIM's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| LEY goals | WIM 0 | WIM 1 | WIM 2 | WIM 3 | WIM 4 | WIM 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEY 0 | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LEY 1 | 10% | 12% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| LEY 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| LEY 3 | 6% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LEY 4 | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LEY 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
LEY 55.6% · Draw 24.4% · WIM 20.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Leyton Orient at 56% — AFC Wimbledon concede 1.4 per game, and the model sees that.
THE ANGLE
Home/away split tells the story: Leyton Orient scoring 1.5/game at home, AFC Wimbledon scoring 1.0/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
LEY
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Leyton Orient
No absences reported.
AFC Wimbledon
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.577%
OVER 2.553%
OVER 3.531%
BTTS53%
LEY CLEAN SHEET37%
WIM CLEAN SHEET17%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
LEY
WIM
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
LEY
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2WIM
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.36SCORED · PER 90
LEY
1.47
LEAGUE1.36
WIM
0.99
LEY scores +0.48 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
LEY
1.09
LEAGUE1.36
WIM
1.42
LEY concedes 0.33 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
LEY
14th
Mid-table on 17 points.
WIM
17th
Mid-table on 16 points.
LEY sit 3 places higher in the table
