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Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 23:57 UTC · 10 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
BAR 32%Draw 26%SHW 42%
Expected goals · BAR 1.4 · SHW 1.6 · 3.0 total
SHW's attack (1.08x the league average) against BAR's defence (1.26x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for BAR's win chance, the blue ones for SHW's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| BAR goals | SHW 0 | SHW 1 | SHW 2 | SHW 3 | SHW 4 | SHW 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAR 0 | 6% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| BAR 1 | 6% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| BAR 2 | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| BAR 3 | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| BAR 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BAR 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
BAR 32.4% · Draw 25.5% · SHW 42.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.9%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Sheffield Wednesday have the edge at 42% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 61% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 12% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
BAR
4-2-3-1SHW
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Barnsley
No absences reported.
Sheffield Wednesday
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.581%
OVER 2.557%
OVER 3.535%
BTTS61%
BAR CLEAN SHEET20%
SHW CLEAN SHEET25%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
BAR
SHW
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
BAR
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 1–2 to Wigan last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
1
points · W0 D1 L4SHW
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.36SCORED · PER 90
BAR
1.18
LEAGUE1.36
SHW
1.68
SHW scores +0.50 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
BAR
1.66
LEAGUE1.36
SHW
1.05
SHW concedes 0.61 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
BAR
23rd
In the relegation zone on 9 points.
SHW
5th
In the promotion play-off places on 23 points.
SHW sit 18 places higher in the table