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Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:20 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
STE 44%Draw 28%SHW 28%
Expected goals · STE 1.4 · SHW 1.1 · 2.5 total
STE's attack (0.99x, below the league average) against SHW's defence (0.96x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for STE's win chance, the blue ones for SHW's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| STE goals | SHW 0 | SHW 1 | SHW 2 | SHW 3 | SHW 4 | SHW 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STE 0 | 9% | 8% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| STE 1 | 10% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| STE 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| STE 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| STE 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| STE 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
STE 44.1% · Draw 27.7% · SHW 28.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Stevenage are favoured at 44% but the draw at 28% is too high to ignore.
THE ANGLE
Stevenage's home advantage is the separator — they score 1.4/game there, Sheffield Wednesday concede 1.1/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
STE
4-4-1-1SHW
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Stevenage
No absences reported.
Sheffield Wednesday
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.573%
OVER 2.547%
OVER 3.525%
BTTS52%
STE CLEAN SHEET33%
SHW CLEAN SHEET24%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
STE
SHW
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
STE
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2SHW
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.36SCORED · PER 90
STE
1.45
LEAGUE1.36
SHW
1.68
SHW scores +0.23 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
STE
1.11
LEAGUE1.36
SHW
1.05
SHW concedes 0.06 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
STE
16th
Mid-table on 16 points.
SHW
5th
In the promotion play-off places on 23 points.
SHW sit 11 places higher in the table