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Paris Saint-Germain vs Lorient
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 00:46 UTC · 15 NovPSG 58%Draw 25%LOR 16%
Expected goals · PSG 1.7 · LOR 0.8 · 2.5 total
PSG's attack (1.44x the league average) against LOR's defence (0.75x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.9.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for PSG's win chance, the blue ones for LOR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| PSG goals | LOR 0 | LOR 1 | LOR 2 | LOR 3 | LOR 4 | LOR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG 0 | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| PSG 1 | 14% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| PSG 2 | 12% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| PSG 3 | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| PSG 4 | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| PSG 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
PSG 58.5% · Draw 25.4% · LOR 16.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Paris Saint-Germain should control this — 58% win probability and 2.3 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.7 vs 0.8 leaves little room for Lorient to force this open.
THE CAVEAT
Paris Saint-Germain are on a 5-match winning streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A RUN · PSG5 wins in a row
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
PSG
4-3-3LOR
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Paris Saint-Germain
Thigh Injury · Could return, due 17 Nov
Calf Injury · Could return, due 17 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury
Lorient
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Groin Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Heel Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.570%
OVER 2.544%
OVER 3.523%
BTTS44%
PSG CLEAN SHEET47%
LOR CLEAN SHEET19%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
PSG
LOR
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
PSG
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
15
points · W5 D0 L0LOR
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.41SCORED · PER 90
PSG
2.30
LEAGUE1.41
LOR
1.25
PSG scores +1.05 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
PSG
0.93
LEAGUE1.41
LOR
1.19
PSG concedes 0.26 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
PSG
1st
Leading the table on 23 points.
LOR
10th
Mid-table on 15 points.
PSG sit 9 places higher in the table
