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Le Mans vs Lille
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 18:10 UTC · 15 NovLMS 21%Draw 26%LIL 53%
Expected goals · LMS 1.0 · LIL 1.7 · 2.7 total
LIL's attack (1.05x the league average) against LMS's defence (1.25x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.7.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for LMS's win chance, the blue ones for LIL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| LMS goals | LIL 0 | LIL 1 | LIL 2 | LIL 3 | LIL 4 | LIL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMS 0 | 8% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| LMS 1 | 6% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| LMS 2 | 3% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| LMS 3 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LMS 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LMS 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
LMS 21.2% · Draw 25.8% · LIL 53.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Lille have the edge at 53% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.0 vs 1.7 gives Lille the edge but leaves room for Le Mans to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
LMS
3-1-4-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Le Mans
Unknown · Could return, due 20 Nov
Unknown · Could return, due 20 Nov
Ankle Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Foot Injury · Expected back 31 Jan
Lille
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Jun
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.549%
OVER 3.527%
BTTS51%
LMS CLEAN SHEET19%
LIL CLEAN SHEET38%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
LMS
LIL
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
LMS
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
2
points · W0 D2 L3LIL
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
11
points · W3 D2 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.41SCORED · PER 90
LMS
1.00
LEAGUE1.41
LIL
1.46
LIL scores +0.46 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
LMS
1.90
LEAGUE1.41
LIL
0.91
LIL concedes 0.99 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
LMS
15th
Hovering above relegation on 8 points.
LIL
2nd
In the Champions League places on 21 points.
LIL sit 13 places higher in the table