Cookies: one sign-in cookie. Analytics only if you accept. Cookie policy
Brest vs Paris FC
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 14:13 UTC · 13 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
BRE 42%Draw 28%PFC 30%
Expected goals · BRE 1.4 · PFC 1.1 · 2.5 total
BRE's attack (1.14x the league average) against PFC's defence (0.77x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for BRE's win chance, the blue ones for PFC's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| BRE goals | PFC 0 | PFC 1 | PFC 2 | PFC 3 | PFC 4 | PFC 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRE 0 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| BRE 1 | 11% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| BRE 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| BRE 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BRE 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| BRE 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
BRE 41.6% · Draw 28.3% · PFC 30.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Brest are favoured at 42% but the draw at 28% is too high to ignore.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 40% of outcomes — 1-1 at 13% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
BRE
4-2-3-1PFC
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.572%
OVER 2.546%
OVER 3.524%
BTTS51%
BRE CLEAN SHEET32%
PFC CLEAN SHEET25%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
BRE
PFC
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
BRE
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
2
games without concedingLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1PFC
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.41SCORED · PER 90
BRE
1.47
LEAGUE1.41
PFC
1.52
PFC scores +0.05 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
BRE
1.47
LEAGUE1.41
PFC
1.23
PFC concedes 0.24 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
BRE
9th
Mid-table on 15 points.
PFC
3rd
In the Champions League places on 20 points.
PFC sit 6 places higher in the table
