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Auxerre vs Marseille
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 18:29 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
AJA 30%Draw 28%OM 42%
Expected goals · AJA 1.1 · OM 1.4 · 2.5 total
OM's attack (1.20x the league average) against AJA's defence (0.92x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for AJA's win chance, the blue ones for OM's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| AJA goals | OM 0 | OM 1 | OM 2 | OM 3 | OM 4 | OM 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJA 0 | 9% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| AJA 1 | 8% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| AJA 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| AJA 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJA 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AJA 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
AJA 29.7% · Draw 28.0% · OM 42.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Marseille have the edge at 42% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 39% of outcomes — 1-1 at 13% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
Marseille are on a 5-match winning streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A RUN · OM5 wins in a row
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
AJA
3-4-2-1OM
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
AJ Auxerre
Groin Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 10 May
Marseille
Knee Injury · Could return, due 15 Nov
Hip Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.573%
OVER 2.547%
OVER 3.525%
BTTS52%
AJA CLEAN SHEET25%
OM CLEAN SHEET32%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
AJA
OM
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
AJA
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Paris FC last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3OM
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
15
points · W5 D0 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.41SCORED · PER 90
AJA
1.20
LEAGUE1.41
OM
1.95
OM scores +0.75 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
AJA
1.68
LEAGUE1.41
OM
1.39
OM concedes 0.29 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
AJA
14th
Hovering above relegation on 10 points.
OM
4th
In the Champions League places on 18 points.
OM sit 10 places higher in the table
