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Troyes vs Le Havre
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 04:54 UTC · 8 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
TRY 30%Draw 27%HAC 43%
Expected goals · TRY 1.2 · HAC 1.5 · 2.7 total
HAC's attack (0.93x, below the league average) against TRY's defence (1.27x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for TRY's win chance, the blue ones for HAC's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| TRY goals | HAC 0 | HAC 1 | HAC 2 | HAC 3 | HAC 4 | HAC 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY 0 | 7% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| TRY 1 | 7% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| TRY 2 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| TRY 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| TRY 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| TRY 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
TRY 30.4% · Draw 26.7% · HAC 42.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Le Havre AC have the edge at 43% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 56% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 13% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
Le Havre AC are on a 5-match losing streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A SKID · HAC5 losses in a row
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
TRY
4-2-3-1HAC
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Troyes
Suspended · Could return, due 20 Nov
Sprained Ankle · Expected back 30 Nov
Le Havre AC
Thigh Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Groin Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Achilles Tendon Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Achilles Tendon Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.577%
OVER 2.552%
OVER 3.530%
BTTS56%
TRY CLEAN SHEET22%
HAC CLEAN SHEET29%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
TRY
HAC
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
TRY
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Paris Saint-Germain last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3HAC
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 to Lorient last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
0
points · W0 D0 L5VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.41SCORED · PER 90
TRY
0.83
LEAGUE1.41
HAC
1.01
HAC scores +0.18 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
TRY
1.80
LEAGUE1.41
HAC
1.74
HAC concedes 0.06 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
TRY
17th
In the relegation zone on 8 points.
HAC
18th
In the relegation zone on 2 points.
TRY sit 1 place higher in the table