Cookies: one sign-in cookie. Analytics only if you accept. Cookie policy
Monaco vs Auxerre
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 13:31 UTC · 8 NovASM 66%Draw 19%AJA 16%
Expected goals · ASM 2.5 · AJA 1.2 · 3.7 total
ASM's attack (1.16x the league average) against AJA's defence (1.37x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for ASM's win chance, the blue ones for AJA's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| ASM goals | AJA 0 | AJA 1 | AJA 2 | AJA 3 | AJA 4 | AJA 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASM 0 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ASM 1 | 6% | 8% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| ASM 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| ASM 3 | 7% | 8% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| ASM 4 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ASM 5 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
ASM 65.6% · Draw 18.7% · AJA 15.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (3.9%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
AS Monaco should control this — 66% win probability and 1.7 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 2.5 vs 1.2 leaves little room for AJ Auxerre to force this open.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
ASM
4-2-3-1AJA
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
AS Monaco
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 31 Dec
AJ Auxerre
Groin Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 10 May
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.588%
OVER 2.570%
OVER 3.549%
BTTS63%
ASM CLEAN SHEET32%
AJA CLEAN SHEET9%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
ASM
AJA
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
ASM
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
3
points · W0 D3 L2AJA
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Paris FC last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.41SCORED · PER 90
ASM
1.68
LEAGUE1.41
AJA
1.20
ASM scores +0.48 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
ASM
1.38
LEAGUE1.41
AJA
1.68
ASM concedes 0.30 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
ASM
7th
Mid-table on 16 points.
AJA
14th
Hovering above relegation on 10 points.
ASM sit 7 places higher in the table
