Cookies: one sign-in cookie. Analytics only if you accept. Cookie policy
Marseille vs Le Mans
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:22 UTC · 10 NovOM 68%Draw 17%LMS 14%
Expected goals · OM 2.6 · LMS 1.2 · 3.8 total
OM's attack (1.39x the league average) against LMS's defence (1.22x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for OM's win chance, the blue ones for LMS's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| OM goals | LMS 0 | LMS 1 | LMS 2 | LMS 3 | LMS 4 | LMS 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OM 0 | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| OM 1 | 5% | 7% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| OM 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| OM 3 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| OM 4 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| OM 5 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
OM 68.3% · Draw 17.4% · LMS 14.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (5.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Marseille should control this — 68% win probability and 1.9 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Home/away split tells the story: Marseille scoring 1.9/game at home, Le Mans scoring 1.0/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
Marseille are on a 5-match winning streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A RUN · OM5 wins in a row
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
OM
4-2-3-1LMS
3-1-4-2Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.590%
OVER 2.573%
OVER 3.553%
BTTS65%
OM CLEAN SHEET31%
LMS CLEAN SHEET7%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
OM
LMS
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
OM
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
15
points · W5 D0 L0LMS
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
2
points · W0 D2 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.41SCORED · PER 90
OM
1.95
LEAGUE1.41
LMS
1.00
OM scores +0.95 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
OM
1.39
LEAGUE1.41
LMS
1.90
OM concedes 0.51 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
OM
4th
In the Champions League places on 18 points.
LMS
15th
Hovering above relegation on 8 points.
OM sit 11 places higher in the table
