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Lille vs Lyon
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 21:00 UTC · 8 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
LIL 44%Draw 30%OL 25%
Expected goals · LIL 1.3 · OL 0.9 · 2.2 total
LIL's attack (0.97x, below the league average) against OL's defence (0.88x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for LIL's win chance, the blue ones for OL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| LIL goals | OL 0 | OL 1 | OL 2 | OL 3 | OL 4 | OL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIL 0 | 12% | 10% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LIL 1 | 14% | 14% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| LIL 2 | 9% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LIL 3 | 4% | 3% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LIL 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LIL 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
LIL 44.3% · Draw 30.4% · OL 25.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Lille have the edge at 44% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Lille are favoured but the draw at 30% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
LIL
4-3-3Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Lille
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Jun
Lyon
Leg Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Groin Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Meniscus Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Jun
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.564%
OVER 2.536%
OVER 3.517%
BTTS43%
LIL CLEAN SHEET41%
OL CLEAN SHEET28%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
LIL
OL
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
LIL
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
11
points · W3 D2 L0OL
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 to Brest last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
6
points · W2 D0 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.41SCORED · PER 90
LIL
1.46
LEAGUE1.41
OL
1.61
OL scores +0.15 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
LIL
0.91
LEAGUE1.41
OL
1.17
LIL concedes 0.26 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
LIL
2nd
In the Champions League places on 21 points.
OL
5th
In the Europa League place on 17 points.
LIL sit 3 places higher in the table
