Cookies: one sign-in cookie. Analytics only if you accept. Cookie policy
Lens vs Toulouse
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 13:36 UTC · 8 NovRCL 48%Draw 25%TFC 27%
Expected goals · RCL 1.7 · TFC 1.2 · 2.9 total
RCL's attack (1.15x the league average) against TFC's defence (0.94x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for RCL's win chance, the blue ones for TFC's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| RCL goals | TFC 0 | TFC 1 | TFC 2 | TFC 3 | TFC 4 | TFC 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCL 0 | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| RCL 1 | 8% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| RCL 2 | 8% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| RCL 3 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| RCL 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| RCL 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
RCL 47.7% · Draw 25.1% · TFC 27.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.0%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Lens are the mild favourites at 48%, with 1.68 expected goals against Toulouse's 1.35, though a Toulouse win at 27% stays very much alive.
THE ANGLE
Lens' 1.68 expected goals (quality of chances) sits above Toulouse's 1.35, and the 1-1 scoreline at 12% leads the distribution, so the shape looks tight rather than one-sided.
THE CAVEAT
Lens' last five (LLWWW) have brought two defeats despite a strong recent run, while Toulouse have won their last five matches with a draw in each of the last two, a shift the flat season averages do not weight.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
RCL
3-4-2-1TFC
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Lens
Head Injury · Could return, due 19 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Groin Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 20 May
Toulouse
Thigh Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.580%
OVER 2.557%
OVER 3.535%
BTTS59%
RCL CLEAN SHEET29%
TFC CLEAN SHEET18%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
RCL
TFC
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
RCL
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to Marseille last outSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2TFC
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.41SCORED · PER 90
RCL
1.71
LEAGUE1.41
TFC
1.42
RCL scores +0.29 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
RCL
1.24
LEAGUE1.41
TFC
1.40
RCL concedes 0.16 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
RCL
11th
Mid-table on 13 points.
TFC
12th
Mid-table on 13 points.
RCL sit 1 place higher in the table
