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Red Star FC 93 vs Pau
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 21:58 UTC · 12 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
RST 32%Draw 25%PAU 43%
Expected goals · RST 1.4 · PAU 1.6 · 3.0 total
PAU's attack (1.19x the league average) against RST's defence (1.18x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for RST's win chance, the blue ones for PAU's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| RST goals | PAU 0 | PAU 1 | PAU 2 | PAU 3 | PAU 4 | PAU 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RST 0 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| RST 1 | 6% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| RST 2 | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| RST 3 | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| RST 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| RST 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
RST 32.2% · Draw 25.3% · PAU 42.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.0%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Pau have the edge at 43% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 38% of outcomes — 1-1 at 12% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
RST
4-2-3-1PAU
5-3-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Red Star FC 93
No absences reported.
Pau
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.581%
OVER 2.559%
OVER 3.536%
BTTS61%
RST CLEAN SHEET19%
PAU CLEAN SHEET25%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
RST
PAU
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
RST
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Dijon last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L4PAU
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 to Nantes last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.30SCORED · PER 90
RST
1.27
LEAGUE1.30
PAU
1.35
PAU scores +0.08 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
RST
1.38
LEAGUE1.30
PAU
1.58
RST concedes 0.20 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
RST
8th
Mid-table on 17 points.
PAU
5th
Mid-table on 20 points.
PAU sit 3 places higher in the table