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Metz vs Boulogne
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 09:43 UTC · 13 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
MET 43%Draw 29%BOU 28%
Expected goals · MET 1.3 · BOU 1.0 · 2.3 total
MET's attack (1.30x the league average) against BOU's defence (0.71x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MET's win chance, the blue ones for BOU's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MET goals | BOU 0 | BOU 1 | BOU 2 | BOU 3 | BOU 4 | BOU 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MET 0 | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| MET 1 | 12% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MET 2 | 9% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MET 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MET 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| MET 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MET 43.0% · Draw 29.3% · BOU 27.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Metz have the edge at 43% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Metz are favoured but the draw at 29% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MET
4-2-3-1BOU
5-3-2Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.568%
OVER 2.541%
OVER 3.521%
BTTS47%
MET CLEAN SHEET37%
BOU CLEAN SHEET27%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MET
BOU
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MET
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2BOU
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.30SCORED · PER 90
MET
1.71
LEAGUE1.30
BOU
0.96
MET scores +0.75 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MET
1.51
LEAGUE1.30
BOU
1.10
BOU concedes 0.41 fewer per 90