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Houston Dynamo FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 10:17 UTC · 14 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
HOU 38%Draw 29%SJ 34%
Expected goals · HOU 1.3 · SJ 1.2 · 2.5 total
Expected goals are close (1.3 vs 1.2) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for HOU's win chance, the blue ones for SJ's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| HOU goals | SJ 0 | SJ 1 | SJ 2 | SJ 3 | SJ 4 | SJ 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU 0 | 9% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| HOU 1 | 10% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| HOU 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| HOU 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| HOU 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| HOU 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
HOU 37.5% · Draw 28.9% · SJ 33.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Neither team separates themselves here — 38% for the slight favourite, 29% for the draw.
THE ANGLE
The draw at 29% is the single most likely outcome — scoreline distribution keeps returning to 1-1.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
HOU
4-2-3-1SJ
5-3-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Houston Dynamo FC
Knock Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
San Jose Earthquakes
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.571%
OVER 2.544%
OVER 3.523%
BTTS51%
HOU CLEAN SHEET31%
SJ CLEAN SHEET28%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
HOU
SJ
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
HOU
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to St. Louis City last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2SJ
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–3 to Minnesota United FC last outSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.49SCORED · PER 90
HOU
1.27
LEAGUE1.49
SJ
1.56
SJ scores +0.29 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
HOU
1.29
LEAGUE1.49
SJ
1.69
HOU concedes 0.40 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
HOU
10th
On 51 points.
SJ
9th
On 52 points.
SJ sit 1 place higher in the table
