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LAFC vs St. Louis CITY SC
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 18:28 UTC · 15 NovLAF 49%Draw 25%STL 26%
Expected goals · LAF 1.7 · STL 1.2 · 2.9 total
LAF's attack (1.08x the league average) against STL's defence (0.94x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for LAF's win chance, the blue ones for STL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| LAF goals | STL 0 | STL 1 | STL 2 | STL 3 | STL 4 | STL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAF 0 | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| LAF 1 | 9% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| LAF 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| LAF 3 | 5% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LAF 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LAF 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
LAF 48.8% · Draw 25.0% · STL 26.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.0%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
LAFC have the edge at 49% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 37% of outcomes — 1-1 at 12% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
LAF
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
LAFC
Head Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Leg Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Back Injury · Expected back 31 Dec
St. Louis CITY SC
Knee Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Concussion · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.580%
OVER 2.556%
OVER 3.534%
BTTS58%
LAF CLEAN SHEET30%
STL CLEAN SHEET18%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
LAF
STL
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
LAF
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to Seattle Sounders last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2STL
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L4VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.49SCORED · PER 90
LAF
1.66
LEAGUE1.49
STL
1.68
Attacks level on season average
CONCEDED · PER 90
LAF
1.23
LEAGUE1.49
STL
1.51
LAF concedes 0.28 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
LAF
13th
On 47 points.
STL
8th
On 54 points.
STL sit 5 places higher in the table