Cookies: one sign-in cookie. Analytics only if you accept. Cookie policy
St. Louis CITY SC vs LAFC
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 03:09 UTC · 12 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
STL 40%Draw 25%LAF 34%
Expected goals · STL 1.6 · LAF 1.5 · 3.1 total
Expected goals are close (1.6 vs 1.5) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for STL's win chance, the blue ones for LAF's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| STL goals | LAF 0 | LAF 1 | LAF 2 | LAF 3 | LAF 4 | LAF 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL 0 | 5% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| STL 1 | 7% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| STL 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| STL 3 | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| STL 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| STL 5 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
STL 40.3% · Draw 25.3% · LAF 34.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.0%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
St. Louis CITY SC have the edge at 40% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 38% of outcomes — 1-1 at 12% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
STL
3-4-3LAF
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
St. Louis CITY SC
Knee Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Concussion · Expected back 30 Nov
LAFC
Head Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Leg Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Back Injury · Expected back 31 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.582%
OVER 2.559%
OVER 3.537%
BTTS62%
STL CLEAN SHEET23%
LAF CLEAN SHEET20%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
STL
LAF
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
STL
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L4LAF
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to Seattle Sounders last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.49SCORED · PER 90
STL
1.68
LEAGUE1.49
LAF
1.66
Attacks level on season average
CONCEDED · PER 90
STL
1.51
LEAGUE1.49
LAF
1.23
LAF concedes 0.28 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
STL
8th
On 54 points.
LAF
13th
On 47 points.
STL sit 5 places higher in the table
