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New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 07:08 UTC · 12 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
NE 32%Draw 24%PHI 44%
Expected goals · NE 1.5 · PHI 1.8 · 3.3 total
PHI's attack (1.35x the league average) against NE's defence (1.03x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for NE's win chance, the blue ones for PHI's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| NE goals | PHI 0 | PHI 1 | PHI 2 | PHI 3 | PHI 4 | PHI 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE 0 | 4% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| NE 1 | 5% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| NE 2 | 4% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| NE 3 | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| NE 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| NE 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
NE 32.0% · Draw 24.1% · PHI 43.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Philadelphia Union have the edge at 44% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Philadelphia Union's away advantage is the separator — they score 1.9/game there, New England Revolution concede 1.5/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
NE
4-3-3Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
New England Revolution
Knock Injury · Expected back 22 Nov
Philadelphia Union
Knee Injury · Could return, due 15 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Concussion · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.584%
OVER 2.564%
OVER 3.541%
BTTS65%
NE CLEAN SHEET17%
PHI CLEAN SHEET22%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
NE
PHI
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
NE
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Orlando City SC last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2PHI
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.49SCORED · PER 90
NE
1.49
LEAGUE1.49
PHI
1.92
PHI scores +0.43 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
NE
1.49
LEAGUE1.49
PHI
1.36
PHI concedes 0.13 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
NE
4th
On 58 points.
PHI
11th
On 50 points.
NE sit 7 places higher in the table
