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San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo FC
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 04:38 UTC · 12 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
SJ 39%Draw 25%HOU 36%
Expected goals · SJ 1.6 · HOU 1.5 · 3.1 total
Expected goals are close (1.6 vs 1.5) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for SJ's win chance, the blue ones for HOU's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| SJ goals | HOU 0 | HOU 1 | HOU 2 | HOU 3 | HOU 4 | HOU 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJ 0 | 5% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| SJ 1 | 7% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| SJ 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| SJ 3 | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| SJ 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SJ 5 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
SJ 38.9% · Draw 25.2% · HOU 35.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.0%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
This looks level with over 2.5 goals at 60% — open but no clear winner.
THE ANGLE
The forecast is this close because neither side has separated themselves — form lines are essentially level.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
SJ
5-3-2HOU
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
San Jose Earthquakes
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Houston Dynamo FC
Knock Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.582%
OVER 2.560%
OVER 3.537%
BTTS62%
SJ CLEAN SHEET22%
HOU CLEAN SHEET21%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
SJ
HOU
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
SJ
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–3 to Minnesota United FC last outSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2HOU
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to St. Louis City last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.49SCORED · PER 90
SJ
1.56
LEAGUE1.49
HOU
1.27
SJ scores +0.29 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
SJ
1.69
LEAGUE1.49
HOU
1.29
HOU concedes 0.40 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
SJ
9th
On 52 points.
HOU
10th
On 51 points.
SJ sit 1 place higher in the table
