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Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 12:45 UTC · 15 NovIPS 27%Draw 25%AVL 47%
Expected goals · IPS 1.2 · AVL 1.7 · 2.9 total
AVL's attack (1.06x the league average) against IPS's defence (1.21x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for IPS's win chance, the blue ones for AVL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| IPS goals | AVL 0 | AVL 1 | AVL 2 | AVL 3 | AVL 4 | AVL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPS 0 | 6% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| IPS 1 | 6% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| IPS 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| IPS 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| IPS 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| IPS 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
IPS 27.2% · Draw 25.3% · AVL 47.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.9%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Aston Villa have the edge at 47% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 59% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 12% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
IPS
4-2-3-1AVL
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Ipswich Town
No absences reported.
Aston Villa
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Leg Injury · Expected back 29 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 20 Dec
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 20 Apr
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.580%
OVER 2.556%
OVER 3.534%
BTTS59%
IPS CLEAN SHEET18%
AVL CLEAN SHEET29%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
IPS
AVL
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
IPS
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to Bournemouth last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2AVL
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
9
points · W2 D3 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
IPS
1.10
LEAGUE1.46
AVL
1.54
AVL scores +0.44 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
IPS
1.94
LEAGUE1.46
AVL
1.47
AVL concedes 0.47 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
IPS
14th
Mid-table on 11 points.
AVL
10th
Mid-table on 13 points.
AVL sit 4 places higher in the table
