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Liverpool vs Manchester United
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:30 UTC · 9 NovLIV 48%Draw 26%MUN 26%
Expected goals · LIV 1.6 · MUN 1.1 · 2.7 total
LIV's attack (1.05x the league average) against MUN's defence (0.97x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for LIV's win chance, the blue ones for MUN's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| LIV goals | MUN 0 | MUN 1 | MUN 2 | MUN 3 | MUN 4 | MUN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIV 0 | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| LIV 1 | 10% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| LIV 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| LIV 3 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LIV 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LIV 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
LIV 48.2% · Draw 26.0% · MUN 25.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Liverpool edge this at 48% — expected goals of 1.6 to 1.1 give them the lean.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 38% of outcomes — 1-1 at 12% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
This is the North-West Derby — derby form rarely follows season-long patterns, and the model doesn't account for rivalry intensity.
DERBYNorth-West Derby
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
LIV
4-2-3-1MUN
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Liverpool
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Physical Discomfort · Expected back 25 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Achilles Tendon Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Manchester United
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Leg Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 10 Apr
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.577%
OVER 2.552%
OVER 3.530%
BTTS55%
LIV CLEAN SHEET32%
MUN CLEAN SHEET20%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
LIV
MUN
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
LIV
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2MUN
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
3
points · W0 D3 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
LIV
1.76
LEAGUE1.46
MUN
1.58
LIV scores +0.18 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
LIV
1.23
LEAGUE1.46
MUN
1.51
LIV concedes 0.28 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
LIV
4th
In the Champions League places on 18 points.
MUN
18th
In the relegation zone on 8 points.
LIV sit 14 places higher in the table
