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Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:54 UTC · 8 NovAVL 53%Draw 24%SUN 23%
Expected goals · AVL 1.9 · SUN 1.2 · 3.1 total
AVL's attack (1.02x the league average) against SUN's defence (1.16x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.7.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for AVL's win chance, the blue ones for SUN's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| AVL goals | SUN 0 | SUN 1 | SUN 2 | SUN 3 | SUN 4 | SUN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVL 0 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AVL 1 | 8% | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| AVL 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| AVL 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AVL 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AVL 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
AVL 53.4% · Draw 23.7% · SUN 22.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Aston Villa have the edge at 53% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 59% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 11% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
AVL
4-2-3-1SUN
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Aston Villa
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Leg Injury · Expected back 29 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 20 Dec
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 20 Apr
Sunderland
Physical Discomfort · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 20 Dec
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.582%
OVER 2.559%
OVER 3.537%
BTTS59%
AVL CLEAN SHEET31%
SUN CLEAN SHEET15%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
AVL
SUN
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
AVL
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
9
points · W2 D3 L0SUN
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
AVL
1.54
LEAGUE1.46
SUN
1.01
AVL scores +0.53 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
AVL
1.47
LEAGUE1.46
SUN
1.47
Defences level on season average
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
AVL
10th
Mid-table on 13 points.
SUN
19th
In the relegation zone on 8 points.
AVL sit 9 places higher in the table
