Photo: Arne Müseler, CC BY-SA 3.0
Turning point · 79'Kristoffer Ajer2–2Forecast Verdict
Top pick missedWe said
Actual
OneTouch Forecast · dc-v1.15
It finished level; our pre-match call put the chance of that at 29%. Aston Villa had more shots (20–14) and more on target (7–4).
Pre-match call frozen 10 Oct 2026 · model dc-v1.15
Tactical shift
Yehor Yarmoliuk
10'
0–1
Nicolas Jackson
12'
1–1
Igor Thiago
Booked
35'
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
On for Matteo Ruggeri
45'
Aaron Hickey
On for Jannik Schuster
45'
Emiliano Buendía
Booked
45'+3'
Mamadou Sangare
On for Kevin Schade
52'
Ibrahim Mbaye
On for Emiliano Buendía
64'
Dango Ouattara
On for Keane Lewis-Potter
67'
Matty Cash
Booked
72'
Vitaly Janelt
Booked
75'
John McGinn
Assist · Johan Manzambi
77'
2–1
Kristoffer Ajer
Assist · Jaidon Anthony
79'
2–2
Michael Kayode
Booked
82'
Kristoffer Ajer
Booked
84'
Callum Wilson
On for Jaidon Anthony
85'
Ross Barkley
On for João Gomes
86'
Callum Wilson
Booked
90'+5'
Ratings are out of 10. marks an OneTouch estimate, not a confirmed grade. Tap a player for details.
Match DNA
Transition Warfare
The match swung on turnovers. Moments of transition were the only moments that mattered.
34 shots
Expected goals over time
accuracy · 35%
kill rate · 10%
accuracy · 29%
kill rate · 14%
Brentford turned 14% of shots into goals to Aston Villa's 10%.
Shots on Target
Attack
xG
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings4
Home
2.9 goals / game
3
Away
3
Draw
League Standing
Premier LeagueKey context
Venue
Villa Park
Kick-off
10 Oct · 14:00 UTC
Referee
Craig Pawson
England · 3.6 yellows/match
Arena 3D
Pitch-level coverage: the ball follows the real on-pitch action.
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