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Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 02:19 UTC · 10 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
NFO 35%Draw 30%CHE 35%
Expected goals · NFO 1.1 · CHE 1.1 · 2.2 total
Expected goals are close (1.1 vs 1.1) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for NFO's win chance, the blue ones for CHE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| NFO goals | CHE 0 | CHE 1 | CHE 2 | CHE 3 | CHE 4 | CHE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFO 0 | 11% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| NFO 1 | 11% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| NFO 2 | 7% | 8% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| NFO 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| NFO 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| NFO 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
NFO 34.9% · Draw 30.0% · CHE 35.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
This looks level with over 2.5 goals at 40% — open but no clear winner.
THE ANGLE
The draw at 30% is the single most likely outcome — scoreline distribution keeps returning to 1-1.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
NFO
3-4-2-1CHE
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Nottingham Forest
Leg Injury · Expected back 29 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knock Injury · Expected back 31 Dec
Chelsea
Knock Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Knee Injury · Expected back 20 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.567%
OVER 2.540%
OVER 3.520%
BTTS47%
NFO CLEAN SHEET32%
CHE CLEAN SHEET32%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
NFO
CHE
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
NFO
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3CHE
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Sunderland last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
NFO
1.28
LEAGUE1.46
CHE
1.64
CHE scores +0.36 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
NFO
1.31
LEAGUE1.46
CHE
1.44
NFO concedes 0.13 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
NFO
16th
Hovering above relegation on 9 points.
CHE
5th
In the Europa League place on 16 points.
CHE sit 11 places higher in the table
