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Manchester United vs Brentford
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 02:19 UTC · 10 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
MUN 45%Draw 24%BRE 32%
Expected goals · MUN 1.8 · BRE 1.5 · 3.3 total
MUN's attack (1.17x the league average) against BRE's defence (0.99x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MUN's win chance, the blue ones for BRE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MUN goals | BRE 0 | BRE 1 | BRE 2 | BRE 3 | BRE 4 | BRE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUN 0 | 4% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MUN 1 | 6% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| MUN 2 | 6% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| MUN 3 | 4% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MUN 4 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MUN 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MUN 44.6% · Draw 23.7% · BRE 31.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.5%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Manchester United have the edge at 45% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.8 vs 1.5 gives Manchester United the edge but leaves room for Brentford to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MUN
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Manchester United
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Leg Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 10 Apr
Brentford
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knock Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Suspended · Red card · Expected back 2 Dec
Knee Surgery · Expected back 10 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.585%
OVER 2.565%
OVER 3.543%
BTTS66%
MUN CLEAN SHEET22%
BRE CLEAN SHEET16%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MUN
BRE
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MUN
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
3
points · W0 D3 L2BRE
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 to Brighton last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
MUN
1.58
LEAGUE1.46
BRE
1.53
MUN scores +0.05 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MUN
1.51
LEAGUE1.46
BRE
1.31
BRE concedes 0.20 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
MUN
18th
In the relegation zone on 8 points.
BRE
8th
Mid-table on 14 points.
BRE sit 10 places higher in the table
