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Everton vs Liverpool
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 02:19 UTC · 10 NovEVE 28%Draw 25%LIV 47%
Expected goals · EVE 1.3 · LIV 1.7 · 3.0 total
LIV's attack (1.32x the league average) against EVE's defence (0.97x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for EVE's win chance, the blue ones for LIV's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| EVE goals | LIV 0 | LIV 1 | LIV 2 | LIV 3 | LIV 4 | LIV 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVE 0 | 6% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| EVE 1 | 6% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| EVE 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| EVE 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| EVE 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| EVE 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
EVE 28.0% · Draw 25.3% · LIV 46.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.9%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Liverpool have the edge at 47% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Liverpool's away advantage is the separator — they score 1.8/game there, Everton concede 1.2/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
This is the Merseyside Derby — derby form rarely follows season-long patterns, and the model doesn't account for rivalry intensity.
DERBYMerseyside Derby
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
EVE
4-2-3-1LIV
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Everton
No absences reported.
Liverpool
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Physical Discomfort · Could return, due 25 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Achilles Tendon Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.580%
OVER 2.556%
OVER 3.534%
BTTS59%
EVE CLEAN SHEET19%
LIV CLEAN SHEET28%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
EVE
LIV
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
EVE
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2LIV
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
EVE
1.21
LEAGUE1.46
LIV
1.76
LIV scores +0.55 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
EVE
1.23
LEAGUE1.46
LIV
1.23
Defences level on season average
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
EVE
6th
Mid-table on 16 points.
LIV
4th
In the Champions League places on 18 points.
LIV sit 2 places higher in the table
