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Brighton vs Newcastle United
29 Nov · 14:05 UTC
American Express Stadium
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 18:08 UTC · 15 NovBHA 58%Draw 24%NEW 18%
Expected goals · BHA 1.8 · NEW 0.9 · 2.7 total
BHA's attack (1.20x the league average) against NEW's defence (0.96x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.9.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for BHA's win chance, the blue ones for NEW's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| BHA goals | NEW 0 | NEW 1 | NEW 2 | NEW 3 | NEW 4 | NEW 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHA 0 | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BHA 1 | 11% | 11% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| BHA 2 | 11% | 10% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BHA 3 | 6% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BHA 4 | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| BHA 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
BHA 57.9% · Draw 24.0% · NEW 18.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Brighton & Hove Albion are strong favourites at 58% — expected goals of 1.8 vs 0.9 reflect the gap.
THE ANGLE
Newcastle United concede 1.5 per game on the model's weighted record, and Brighton & Hove Albion's most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
BHA
4-2-3-1NEW
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Brighton & Hove Albion
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Ankle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knock Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Newcastle United
Knock Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.577%
OVER 2.552%
OVER 3.530%
BTTS51%
BHA CLEAN SHEET40%
NEW CLEAN SHEET16%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
BHA
NEW
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
BHA
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
2
games without concedingLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1NEW
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
BHA
1.73
LEAGUE1.46
NEW
1.53
BHA scores +0.20 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
BHA
1.09
LEAGUE1.46
NEW
1.48
BHA concedes 0.39 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
BHA
2nd
In the Champions League places on 22 points.
NEW
12th
Mid-table on 12 points.
BHA sit 10 places higher in the table
