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Newcastle United vs Arsenal
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:49 UTC · 7 NovNEW 22%Draw 26%ARS 52%
Expected goals · NEW 1.0 · ARS 1.7 · 2.7 total
ARS's attack (1.14x the league average) against NEW's defence (1.09x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.7.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for NEW's win chance, the blue ones for ARS's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| NEW goals | ARS 0 | ARS 1 | ARS 2 | ARS 3 | ARS 4 | ARS 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW 0 | 7% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| NEW 1 | 6% | 12% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| NEW 2 | 4% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| NEW 3 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| NEW 4 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| NEW 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
NEW 22.5% · Draw 25.7% · ARS 51.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.8%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Arsenal have the edge at 52% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Arsenal's away advantage is the separator — they score 1.8/game there, Newcastle United concede 1.5/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
Arsenal are on a 5-match winning streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A RUN · ARS5 wins in a row
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
NEW
4-2-3-1ARS
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Newcastle United
Knock Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Arsenal
Suspended · Red card · Could return, due 21 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 30 Apr
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.576%
OVER 2.550%
OVER 3.528%
BTTS53%
NEW CLEAN SHEET19%
ARS CLEAN SHEET36%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
NEW
ARS
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
NEW
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3ARS
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
4
games without concedingLAST 5
15
points · W5 D0 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
NEW
1.53
LEAGUE1.46
ARS
1.80
ARS scores +0.27 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
NEW
1.48
LEAGUE1.46
ARS
0.67
ARS concedes 0.81 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
NEW
12th
Mid-table on 12 points.
ARS
1st
Leading the table on 27 points.
ARS sit 11 places higher in the table
