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Coventry City vs Crystal Palace
21 Nov · 15:00 UTC
Coventry Building Society Arena
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 12:40 UTC · 8 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
COV 41%Draw 27%CRY 32%
Expected goals · COV 1.5 · CRY 1.3 · 2.8 total
COV's attack (0.78x, below the league average) against CRY's defence (1.18x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for COV's win chance, the blue ones for CRY's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| COV goals | CRY 0 | CRY 1 | CRY 2 | CRY 3 | CRY 4 | CRY 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COV 0 | 7% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| COV 1 | 9% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| COV 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| COV 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| COV 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| COV 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
COV 41.1% · Draw 26.8% · CRY 32.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Coventry City are favoured at 41% but the draw at 27% is too high to ignore.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 56% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 13% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
COV
4-2-3-1CRY
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Coventry City
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knock Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Calf Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Crystal Palace
Groin Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Suspended · Red card · Expected back 29 Nov
Calf Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Jun
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.577%
OVER 2.552%
OVER 3.530%
BTTS56%
COV CLEAN SHEET28%
CRY CLEAN SHEET23%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
COV
CRY
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
COV
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–3 to Everton last outSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
6
points · W2 D0 L3CRY
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–3 to Liverpool last outSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L4VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
COV
1.00
LEAGUE1.46
CRY
1.16
CRY scores +0.16 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
COV
1.85
LEAGUE1.46
CRY
1.75
CRY concedes 0.10 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
COV
17th
Hovering above relegation on 9 points.
CRY
20th
In the relegation zone on 7 points.
COV sit 3 places higher in the table
