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Chelsea vs Leeds United
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 11:43 UTC · 8 NovCHE 51%Draw 26%LEE 23%
Expected goals · CHE 1.6 · LEE 1.0 · 2.6 total
CHE's attack (1.11x the league average) against LEE's defence (0.89x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for CHE's win chance, the blue ones for LEE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| CHE goals | LEE 0 | LEE 1 | LEE 2 | LEE 3 | LEE 4 | LEE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 8% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CHE 1 | 11% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| CHE 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| CHE 3 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CHE 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| CHE 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
CHE 50.6% · Draw 26.4% · LEE 23.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Chelsea have the edge at 51% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Chelsea's home advantage is the separator — they score 1.6/game there, Leeds United concede 1.2/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
CHE
3-4-2-1LEE
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Chelsea
Knock Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Knee Injury · Expected back 20 Jan
Leeds United
Suspended · Could return, due 16 Nov
Suspended · Could return, due 17 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS51%
CHE CLEAN SHEET37%
LEE CLEAN SHEET20%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
CHE
LEE
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
CHE
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Sunderland last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2LEE
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
CHE
1.64
LEAGUE1.46
LEE
1.19
CHE scores +0.45 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
CHE
1.44
LEAGUE1.46
LEE
1.17
LEE concedes 0.27 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
CHE
5th
In the Europa League place on 16 points.
LEE
9th
Mid-table on 14 points.
CHE sit 4 places higher in the table
