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Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:54 UTC · 8 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
BOU 44%Draw 27%NFO 29%
Expected goals · BOU 1.5 · NFO 1.2 · 2.7 total
BOU's attack (1.00x, about the league average) against NFO's defence (0.95x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for BOU's win chance, the blue ones for NFO's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| BOU goals | NFO 0 | NFO 1 | NFO 2 | NFO 3 | NFO 4 | NFO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOU 0 | 7% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| BOU 1 | 9% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| BOU 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| BOU 3 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BOU 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| BOU 5 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
BOU 44.4% · Draw 26.8% · NFO 28.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
AFC Bournemouth are mild favourites at 44%, leaning on 1.52 expected goals against Nottingham Forest's 1.18.
THE ANGLE
Bournemouth's 1.54 goals scored per game against Forest's 1.31 conceded points to the home side's attack as the main edge, with the 1-1 scoreline at 13% the single most likely result.
THE CAVEAT
Forest's last five (WLDLL, scoring 5 and conceding 8) cut against their season baseline of 1.28 scored, and the flat aggregates may miss that slide.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
BOU
4-2-3-1NFO
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
AFC Bournemouth
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Ankle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Feb
Nottingham Forest
Leg Injury · Expected back 29 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knock Injury · Expected back 31 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.576%
OVER 2.551%
OVER 3.529%
BTTS55%
BOU CLEAN SHEET31%
NFO CLEAN SHEET22%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
BOU
NFO
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
BOU
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1NFO
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
BOU
1.54
LEAGUE1.46
NFO
1.28
BOU scores +0.26 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
BOU
1.33
LEAGUE1.46
NFO
1.31
Defences level on season average
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
BOU
7th
Mid-table on 15 points.
NFO
16th
Hovering above relegation on 9 points.
BOU sit 9 places higher in the table
