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Al Ahli vs Al Faisaly
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 03:11 UTC · 7 NovAHL 88%Draw 8%ALF 3%
Expected goals · AHL 3.4 · ALF 0.7 · 4.1 total
AHL's attack (1.77x the league average) against ALF's defence (1.25x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 2.7.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for AHL's win chance, the blue ones for ALF's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| AHL goals | ALF 0 | ALF 1 | ALF 2 | ALF 3 | ALF 4 | ALF 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AHL 0 | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AHL 1 | 5% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AHL 2 | 10% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AHL 3 | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AHL 4 | 10% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AHL 5 | 7% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
AHL 88.0% · Draw 8.5% · ALF 3.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (13.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Al Ahli should control this — 88% win probability and 2.3 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 3.5 vs 0.7 leaves little room for Al Faisaly to force this open.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
TEAM NEWS
Al Ahli
No absences reported.
Al Faisaly
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.592%
OVER 2.578%
OVER 3.559%
BTTS47%
AHL CLEAN SHEET51%
ALF CLEAN SHEET3%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
AHL
ALF
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
AHL
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 1–6 to Al Shabab last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1ALF
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 1–4 to Al-Fayha last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
AHL
2.25
LEAGUE1.46
ALF
0.97
AHL scores +1.28 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
AHL
1.17
LEAGUE1.46
ALF
1.99
AHL concedes 0.82 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
AHL
6th
On 21 points.
ALF
15th
On 10 points.
AHL sit 9 places higher in the table
