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Al Ittihad vs Neom SC
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 04:15 UTC · 6 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
ITT 44%Draw 28%NEO 28%
Expected goals · ITT 1.4 · NEO 1.1 · 2.5 total
ITT's attack (1.21x the league average) against NEO's defence (0.77x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for ITT's win chance, the blue ones for NEO's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| ITT goals | NEO 0 | NEO 1 | NEO 2 | NEO 3 | NEO 4 | NEO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITT 0 | 8% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| ITT 1 | 10% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| ITT 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| ITT 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ITT 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ITT 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
ITT 44.0% · Draw 27.7% · NEO 28.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Al Ittihad have the edge at 44% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.5 vs 1.1 gives Al Ittihad the edge but leaves room for Neom SC to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
ITT
4-2-3-1Hassan Kadesh · Danilo Pereira · Jan-Carlo Simić · Muhannad Shanqeeti · Faris Abdi
Bench · 12
Ali, Ilenikhena, Ríos, Wijnaldum, Al-Julaydan, Al-Sahafi +6
Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Al Ittihad
Cruciate Ligament Injury · Expected back 20 Apr
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.573%
OVER 2.547%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS52%
ITT CLEAN SHEET33%
NEO CLEAN SHEET23%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
ITT
NEO
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
ITT
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1NEO
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.46SCORED · PER 90
ITT
1.83
LEAGUE1.46
NEO
1.35
ITT scores +0.48 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
ITT
1.26
LEAGUE1.46
NEO
1.15
NEO concedes 0.11 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
ITT
4th
On 24 points.
NEO
5th
On 22 points.
ITT sit 1 place higher in the table