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St Mirren vs Kilmarnock
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 10:58 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
STM 41%Draw 27%KIL 32%
Expected goals · STM 1.5 · KIL 1.3 · 2.8 total
STM's attack (0.81x, below the league average) against KIL's defence (1.17x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for STM's win chance, the blue ones for KIL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| STM goals | KIL 0 | KIL 1 | KIL 2 | KIL 3 | KIL 4 | KIL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STM 0 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| STM 1 | 9% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| STM 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| STM 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| STM 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| STM 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
STM 40.9% · Draw 27.1% · KIL 32.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
St Mirren have the edge at 41% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 56% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 13% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
STM
4-2-3-1KIL
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.576%
OVER 2.551%
OVER 3.529%
BTTS56%
STM CLEAN SHEET28%
KIL CLEAN SHEET23%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
STM
KIL
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
STM
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 to Rangers last outGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3KIL
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Celtic last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.38SCORED · PER 90
STM
0.89
LEAGUE1.38
KIL
0.99
KIL scores +0.10 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
STM
1.74
LEAGUE1.38
KIL
2.19
STM concedes 0.45 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
STM
8th
On 14 points.
KIL
12th
On 9 points.
STM sit 4 places higher in the table
